Will Rivian exist in 5 years? EV buyers want to know.

If you pay $70K for a Rivian, can you trust the maker of electric pickups and SUVs will exist in five years?
It’s a reasonable question to ask about any EV maker after watching Henrik Fisker’s double-pike dive into bankruptcy, James Dyson’s (yes, the vacuum Dyson) decision to quit before building its first electric car and the evanescent nature of other startups that promised the moon and delivered a 15-watt night-light.
Even Apple’s decade-long flirtation with automaking didn’t even amount to a moldy MacIntosh in the end.
Who can you trust?
Not the venture capitalists who sank billions into EV wannabes in a flight of post-rational exuberance. As Ana Gasteyer’s clueless but confident CEO said in the underappreciated sitcom “American Auto,” tech startups are like scratchers: Nobody knows which will pay off, so buy a handful.
More:EV maker Rivian stuns observers with 3 new, less expensive SUVs
But you’re not playing with OPM — other people’s money. If the company that made your car fails, it affects everything in your life, not just what line your accountant puts the investment on.
Rivian debuted with a bang. It boasted a commitment by Amazon to buy a fleet of its electric delivery vans and a billion-dollar investment by Ford, which said it would use Rivian technology on some it its first modern EVs. Ford eventually dropped that idea, cashing out of Rivian at a handsome profit.
Founding CEO R.J. Scaringe was a poster boy for the emerging EV industry, acquiring a shuttered Illinois assembly plant that was founded as a joint venture of Chrysler and Mitsubishi in the 1980s. Mitsubishi took it over as Chrysler’s fortunes sagged. The small Japanese automaker closed the plant in 2019 at the cost of 1,300 jobs in the small, central-Illinois city of Normal. Rivian’s acquisition of the near-ready plant with access to experienced workers reminded some onlookers of Tesla’s acquisition of a Bay Area Toyota plant.
More:2025 Rivian R1S SUV sheds weight, adds range and features
While other EV startups had a DIY feel, other feathers in Rivian’s cap included an engineering center in suburban Detroit, multiple facilities in California, $13.5 billion raised when the company went public in 2021 and generally positive reviews of its first two vehicles: The R1S midsize pickup and R1T three-row SUV.
There are no sure things, but Rivian has expertise and assets few of the other newbies can match.
Caveat: Any automaker could go out of business. It’s a hypercompetitive industry that consumes box cars of cash on a daily basis.
That said, big, established car companies are notoriously hard to kill. Companies like General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota and Renault are so interwoven with national employment, investment, research and financial markets that no government can afford to let one suddenly fail.
Economists may call it a moral hazard, but it’s realpolitik: Some things are too big to fail.
None of that applies to the new EV specialists. Even market leader Tesla is barely a blip in the national economy.
Still, I’m not overly concerned about Rivian vanishing like both of Fisker’s failed startups. (Yes, there were two: Fisker Automotive failed a decade ago, before Henrik found a new flock of pigeons to fund the currently crumbling Fisker Inc., most notable for Consumer Reports’ scathing evaluation of its Ocean SUV: “The most incomplete car I’ve driven in my career.”
Why is Rivian different?
VW recently agreed to pay Rivian $5 billion. The German giant effectively admitted its yearslong, multibillion Euro EV program was on the rocks. It needed Rivian’s help developing electrical systems, software and more.
“Rivian’s chances got much better with the VW deal,” Guidehouse Insights analyst Sam Abuelsamid said. “It will definitely help over the next couple of years as Rivian ramps up production of new vehicles.”
Rivian also has a credible product cadence, a rarity among EV specialists, but a necessity in automaking.
Rivian just rolled out a series of significant upgrades to its R1T and R1S midsize pickup and SUV. A pair of smaller and more affordable SUVs are on tap.
“Rivian has passed to go/no-go point,” IHS Global Mobility analyst Stephanie Brinley said.
Contact Mark Phelan: 313-222-6731 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @mark_phelan. Read more on autos and sign up for our autos newsletter. Become a subscriber.